How to find competitions with the best odds of winning

The prize gets all the attention, but whether a competition is actually worth entering comes down to the numbers behind it. Whether it is marketed as a prize draw, a raffle or a giveaway, two competitions can offer the exact same prize on very different terms. What separates a good one from a bad one is the combination of how many tickets there are, what each ticket costs, and how that total stacks up against the real value of the prize.

The numbers that actually matter

Four figures tell you almost everything: the ticket price, the total number of tickets, the real retail value of the prize, and your resulting odds. Your odds are simply the tickets you buy divided by the total tickets. Multiply the ticket price by the total number of tickets and you get the prize pool: the amount the competition will raise if it sells out. Those two sums, your odds and the pool, are what you are really judging.

Weigh the prize pool against the prize value

This is the real value test. Compare the total prize pool (ticket price multiplied by ticket count) with what the prize is actually worth at retail. If a competition is set to raise three or four times the prize value in tickets, you are paying a heavy markup, and the ticket count is usually inflated to cover it. This worsens your odds significantly. When the pool is close to the real value of the prize, you are getting much fairer odds.

Watch out for hidden markups

On sites that own their stock, the prize is often marked up several times over retail. The only way to recover that markup is to sell huge volumes of tickets, which is exactly what tanks your odds. If a raffle will not show you the ticket count or the ticket price, you cannot run the sum, so assume the worst. The markup is usually the reason it is hidden.

Think in the tickets you will actually buy

Start from how many tickets you would realistically buy, then see what that actually gets you. Say your budget stretches to ten tickets. Ten tickets in a 1,000-ticket competition is a 1 in 100 chance. The exact same ten tickets in a 200,000-ticket giveaway is a 1 in 20,000 chance. Same spend, same effort, but one gives you a genuine shot and the other gives you pretty bad odds. It is the total ticket count versus your ticket count that turns your handful of tickets into real odds or almost none, so judge every competition on what your actual spend buys you there.

Why luckladder makes this easy to check

On luckladder the ticket total and a low fixed ticket price are shown on every competition page, and hosts set their max payout against the real value of the prize rather than having a huge markup. This means the prize pool is close to the prize value. You can do the whole calculation, pool against prize value, plus your odds and what a real chance costs, before you commit a penny.

Check how and when the draw closes

Some competitions close on a fixed date whether they sell out or not, which can mean even better odds if ticket sales are slow. Others draw the moment the last ticket sells. Either is fine, as long as it is clear and automatic. On luckladder the winner is picked automatically when the draw closes, so there is no waiting around for someone to run it by hand.

A simple rule of thumb

If you cannot see the ticket price and the ticket count, you cannot judge the value, so do not enter. If you can, check the prize pool against the prize value, then work out what a real chance would cost you. Want the prize, understand the odds, know the fees. That is the whole game.

For more, read how to increase your chances of winning competitions online or browse live competitions and run the numbers for yourself.